🔥🔥 Did Elon sell too early? NEW SIGNAL! Last 3 Tesla signals: +62%, +40%, +19%
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OUR LAST 3 SIGNALS ON TESLA:
Tesla shares are up +62%: [from Jul 31]: Score 7.6 (out of 10): sets up for +28%
Tesla shares are up +40%: [from Sep 8]: Score 8.0 (out of 10): sets up for +38%
Tesla shares are up +19%: [from Dec 7]: Score 7.5 (out of 10): sets up for +29%
NEW SIGNAL ……………… [from Jan 3]: Score 8.4 (out of 10): sets up for +44%
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Insights, or signals, don’t come often for Tesla but when they come, they tend to show very strong returns - at least based on the previous 3 signals our models generated over the last 6 months.
New Tesla Signal (from Jan 3): Score 8.4 (out of 10): TESLA sets up for +43.9% rally in 3 months
TESLA INC has triggered a new price range signal. During similar occasions, TESLA INC shares had a median return of +43.9%, over the following 3 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for TESLA INC received a high score of 8.4 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2022-January-3 with last price of 1199.78.
For Details, find this January 3 insight for Tesla here
Exhibit 1: Returns from Our last 3 signals for TESLA
One of the biggest stories of 2021 has been the surprise in inflation which is driven by supply side disruption, notably on the chip / semiconductor side - this is why chip stocks had huge returns last year and (used) car prices have exploded higher.
Despite strong demand for cars, most car manufacturers fail to ramp up production as they are missing the ‘chips’ - as most vehicles are now powered by computers. Tesla appears to have managed their chip supply chain far better and contrary to other manufacturers, keeps on surprising on their delivery numbers.
Indeed, Tesla’s Q4 deliveries were +70% compared to Q4 the previous year - delivering 308,600 vehicles vs. analysts’ forecasts of 263,026 - almost delivering 1m for 2021 (936,172 to be exact).
Analysts are also pointing out a potential cost advantage due to Tesla’s new lithium iron phosphate batteries - another key input which might shield Tesla from supply chain disruption.
While the company’s CEO Elon Musk sold $10-12bn shares in December, the shares had a set back. The stock price has rallied back now and is challenging all time highs. The company will deliver quarterly earnings on December 27th.
Throughout 2021, while positive vehicle deliveries and strong revenue growth has driven the share price, on a shorter-term basis, option gamma has helped to ramp up prices. This forces the dealers (who sold calls) to keep on buying more shares as the stock prices went up.
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