🚀 Today's Big Ideas: S&P500, WTI, Adobe
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TODAY'S BIG IDEAS
S&P500 EMINI FUT sets up for +3% rally in 1 month
WTI CRUDE FUTURE sets up for +22.4% rally in 3 months
ADOBE INC poised to seasonally rally by +12.7% during the next 90 days.
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(1) Score 7.4 (out of 10): S&P500 EMINI FUT sets up for +3% rally in 1 month
What’s Going On Here?
A combination of Omicron covid virus and upside interest risk from the US central bank has caused a small correction in US equities. While the potential outcome of the omicron virus is too early to tell, leading institutes and pharma companies indicate that the vaccines are likely also effective in preventing severe problems, in most cases.
Why Now?
S&P500 EMINI FUT has successfully tested a support level. During similar occasions, S&P500 EMINI FUT shares had a median return of +3%, over the following 1 month – based on 6 historical occasions with 5 of those showing positive returns (83%). This buy signal for S&P500 EMINI FUT received a high score of 7.4 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-December-2 with last price of 4,562.
What’s This Company About?
S&P500 EMINI FUT is in an index. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. Ticker symbol: ESA
What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?
We found 1 month to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 4701.32 (+3%) has been reached. Based on S&P500 EMINI FUT’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 4415.95 (last price at 4562.75), which is equivalent to a -3.2% decline.
(2) Score 8.5 (out of 10): WTI CRUDE FUTURE sets up for +22.4% rally in 3 months
What’s Going On Here?
Oil prices have corrected -25% since the news broke about the new COVID strain as the market was worried about new lock-downs which would limit demand. Interestingly, Saudi-Arabia has hiked its price for Asian and US consumers, indicating that demand expectations might stay firmer than people initially expected. In addition, the US-Iran nuclear talks might have hit an impasse. If a deal is reached, Iran might be able to sell a lot of oil, putting downward pressure on prices.
Why Now?
WTI CRUDE FUTURE has triggered a new high volatility signal (3 month). During similar occasions, WTI CRUDE FUTURE shares had a median return of +22.4%, over the following 3 months – based on 10 historical occasions with 9 of those showing positive returns (90%). This buy signal for WTI CRUDE FUTURE received a high score of 8.5 (out of 10). This insight was generated on 2021-December-6 with last price of 67.91.
What’s This Company About?
WTI CRUDE FUTURE is US crude oil contract. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Very Risky. Ticker symbol: USO
What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?
We found 3 months to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 83.12 (+22.4%) has been reached. Based on WTI CRUDE FUTURE’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 59.71 (last price at 67.91), which is equivalent to a -12.1% decline.
(3) Score 8.6 (out of 10): ADOBE INC poised to seasonally rally by +12.7% during the next 90 days.
What’s Going On Here?
According to ADOBE’s Digital Economy Index, US consumers almost spent $11bn in online shopping on Cyber Monday. Estimates were slightly higher at $11.3bn. Some consumers have spread out e-commerce spending across the months of October and November due to growing awareness of supply chain challenges and product availability.
Why Now?
ADOBE INC indicates an interesting 90 days seasonal set up. During similar occasions, ADOBE INC shares had a median return of +12.7% – based on 10 historical occasions with 8 of those showing positive returns (80%). This buy signal for ADOBE INC received a high score of 8.6 (out of 10). This insight was generated with last price of 671.88.
What’s This Company About?
ADOBE INC is in the Electronic Forms business. Based on the last 2 years’ risk/return profile, this asset is seen as Less Risky. ‘Wall Street’ analysts think the stock price will be worth 7.2% more (average). Ticker symbol: ADBE US.
What’s My Risk / Reward and Time Horizon?
We found 90 days to be the optimal trade horizon, after testing a number of possible alternatives (accuracy of previous returns). Otherwise consider closing out this trade once the target level of 757.01 (+12.7%) has been reached. Based on ADOBE INC’s recent up and down swings, LongShortBets suggests considering to set a stop loss level for this insight at 627.38 (last price at 671.88), which is equivalent to a -6.6% decline.
For more investment insights, please visit us at www.LongShortBets.com